U.S. Treasury Bonds (30-Year) — Signals, Shapes & Risk
A quick, visual guide to the 30-year Treasury: semiannual coupons, tax treatment, price↔yield intuition, yield-curve shapes, and how we align entries with macro catalysts and planetary timing windows.
Price ↔ Yield: the inverse relationship
When market yields rise, existing fixed coupons look less attractive, so bond prices tend to fall; when yields fall, prices tend to rise. The sketch below shows the intuition only (not real data).
Educational sketch. See Federal Reserve education & St. Louis Fed explainers for the mechanics and caveats.
Yield-curve shapes at a glance
The curve plots yields by maturity. Typical shapes: upward (normal), flat, and inverted. Shape can reflect growth/inflation expectations and policy stance.
Historically, a persistently inverted curve has often preceded slower growth; context still matters.
What is a 30-year Treasury bond?
- Marketable U.S. Treasury Bond with 30-year maturity and fixed coupon, paid every six months until maturity.
- Interest is subject to federal income tax but generally exempt from state and local income taxes.
- Treasury announces auction schedules (original issues and reopenings) on its auction pages.
Strategy: duration, ladders & review
- Duration sizing: Longer duration amplifies price moves for a given rate change—use thoughtfully.
- Ladders: Stagger maturities to smooth reinvestment and rate-path uncertainty.
- Process: Define inputs, keep an assumptions log, review on a set cadence.
Further reading & evidence
- St. Louis Fed — Why bond prices move inversely to interest rates
- New York Fed — Yield curve as leading indicator (research Q&A)
- Federal Reserve Education — Yield curve primer
Research links are for context; no single indicator guarantees future outcomes.
Is Treasury interest state-tax exempt?
How often are 30Y bonds auctioned?
Who this helps
- Long-horizon investors seeking ballast and income.
- Allocators rotating risk during equity drawdowns.
- Macro traders expressing views via duration and curve shape.